Key Takeaways

  • Legal experts predict a minimal chance of the SEC winning its appeal against Ripple, ranging from 3% to 14.2%.
  • Ripple gained significant ground when a judge ruled that XRP sales do not violate securities law, followed by the SEC dismissing charges against Ripple executives.
  • Experts foresee a low likelihood of the case going to trial next year, expecting a final judgment to be made instead.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems unlikely to win its appeal against Ripple, according to legal experts who have been closely monitoring the ongoing lawsuit.

Bill Morgan, a lawyer who has been keenly observing the case, recently posted his thoughts on X (formerly known as Twitter).

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The man argues that there’s a mere 3% likelihood of the SEC succeeding in an appeal against Ripple. His rationale focuses on the absence of any obvious errors that could be appealed, except those that are in Ripple’s favor concerning ODL sales.

Specifically, Morgan claimed that these sales do not satisfy at least two criteria of the Howey Test, a legal standard used to determine what constitutes a security.

On the other hand, another high-profile attorney, Jeremy Hogan, cited government statistics revealing that the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning its appeal against Ripple. Hogan’s data provides a slightly more optimistic outlook for the SEC. However, it still indicates a generally low probability of success.

In a significant ruling that took three years to materialize, a judge decided that XRP sales on crypto exchanges didn’t break securities law. This judgment has been seen as a monumental victory for Ripple, especially after suffering business losses due to the SEC lawsuit, which led to the delisting of XRP from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Further diminishing the SEC’s momentum, Judge Analisa Torres ruled on October 4th that the commission failed to meet its obligation to show that there were substantial legal questions or significant grounds for differing opinions on the case.

The SEC then moved to dismiss all charges against Ripple executives, like CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chair Chris Larsen, on October 19th, providing yet another win for Ripple. 

Bill Morgan added that, given the SEC’s move to dismiss the rest of the case, there will likely be no trial next year, predicting a “final judgment (probably) sometime next year.”

As the lengthy legal tussle between the SEC and Ripple seems to be winding down, expert analysis suggests a very low chance of the SEC succeeding in its appeal. Ripple has secured multiple victories in court, and its future appears increasingly positive, potentially paving the way for XRP to regain its former status in the cryptocurrency market.

Gile is a Market Sentiment Analyst who understands what public events may form what emotions. Her experience researching Web3 news and public market messages – including cryptocurrency news reports, PRs, and social network streams – is critical to her role in helping lead the Crypto News Editorial Team.
As an intelligent professional in public relations, together with the team, she aims to determine real VS fake news patterns, and bring her findings to anyone searching for unbiased news and events happening in the FinTech markets. Her expertise is uncovering the latest trustworthy & informative Web3 announcements to the masses.
When she’s not researching the trustworthiness of mainstream stories, she spends time enjoying her terrace view and taking meticulous care of her outdoor environment.


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