Quick Take

  • Troubling new numbers from the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, are set to be released today.
  • The PCE Index measures the changes in the cost of consumer goods and services month over month; today’s numbers are expected to surpass the anticipated 3.9% to reach 4.4%.
  • The Kobessi Letter summarized the PCE inflation report in a tweet pointing out that PCE inflation for both April and May were higher than expected.
  • Markets are now forecasting a further 25-basis point rate hike, raising the federal funds rate to 5.25-5.50%.
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)

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